As Washington once again wrestles with a federal budget standoff, millions of retirees are watching the calendar with growing unease. If the federal government shutdown drags past October 15, 2025, it could delay—but not derail—the Social Security Administration’s (SSA) announcement of the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). The good news: benefits will keep flowing. The not-so-good news: the official word on next year’s raise might arrive late.
What Happens to the COLA During a Shutdown
Each fall, the SSA announces how much Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits will increase based on inflation data from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). That data comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which measures consumer price changes for everything from food to fuel.
Even during a shutdown, the BLS continues to release CPI data, since it’s considered an “essential function.” So, the September 2025 inflation report—the final piece needed to calculate the 2026 COLA—will still be published on time. That means the math behind the adjustment won’t be affected.
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However, the announcement itself could be delayed if the SSA’s communications, IT, or public affairs teams are furloughed. These “non-essential” staff members handle press releases, online updates, and beneficiary notices. Without them, the agency might have to sit on the number until government operations resume.
| Timeline Event | Normal Schedule | Shutdown Impact |
|---|---|---|
| BLS releases September CPI-W data | October 10, 2025 | Still expected on time |
| SSA announces 2026 COLA | October 15, 2025 | Could be delayed if staff are furloughed |
| COLA effective for benefits | January 2026 | No change; payments still increase automatically |
What a Delay Means for Retirees
The SSA’s COLA announcement is largely symbolic—it gives beneficiaries an official confirmation and updates payment calculators. But the actual benefit increase doesn’t require a functioning Congress or even a fully open agency. It’s automatic, tied to the CPI-W formula written into law.
In other words, even if the government shuts down, your Social Security and SSI checks will continue to arrive as usual. These benefits are paid from dedicated trust funds, not the annual appropriations that Congress fights over.
However, you might notice longer customer service wait times, limited access to SSA field offices, and delays in appeals, benefit corrections, or new claims. During the last extended shutdown in 2018–2019, most SSA offices remained open but operated with skeleton crews.
Medicare, Medicaid, and SNAP Still Operating
The same holds true for other major benefit programs.
- Medicare and Medicaid remain fully functional because their funding is mandatory.
- SNAP (food assistance) will continue, though extended shutdowns could slow reimbursements to states.
- Veterans benefits are also insulated from shutdown effects, though administrative delays may occur.
The shutdown impacts bureaucratic speed, not benefit continuity.
The 2026 COLA: What to Expect
The 2026 COLA is projected to be around 2.7%, according to analysts from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) and other policy groups. That’s slightly higher than the 2.5% increase in 2025, reflecting modest inflation throughout the year.
Here’s what that means in real terms:
| Category | 2025 Benefit | 2026 Projected (2.7% COLA) | Monthly Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average retired worker | $2,005 | $2,059 | +$54 |
| Average couple (both receiving benefits) | $3,300 | $3,389 | +$89 |
| Maximum benefit (at full retirement age) | $3,822 | $3,925 | +$103 |
| SSI individual payment | $943 | $968 | +$25 |
These numbers could shift slightly when the official CPI-W data for September 2025 is released, but experts don’t expect major surprises.
What If the Shutdown Lasts Longer?
A short shutdown—a few days or even a couple of weeks—would barely register in terms of Social Security operations. But if it stretches into months, as some previous ones have, the ripple effects could grow:
- Delayed COLA notifications: Beneficiaries might not receive official letters or MySSA updates until government staff return.
- Backlogged paperwork: Claims, appeals, and earnings record corrections could pile up.
- Outreach and support slowdowns: SSA field offices, especially in rural areas, might operate on reduced schedules.
Still, the actual payments will continue to arrive on schedule.
Why the COLA Announcement Matters
For millions of retirees living on fixed incomes, the COLA isn’t just a number—it’s a lifeline. With prices for groceries, utilities, and housing still elevated, even a modest 2.7% boost provides needed breathing room.
But the timing of the announcement also matters for planning. Many seniors use the October notice to adjust budgets, estimate tax withholding, or make Medicare decisions before open enrollment. A delay could create short-term uncertainty heading into winter.
Economist Mary Johnson of TSCL summed it up:
“Retirees count on this announcement for their financial planning. Even a few weeks’ delay can create anxiety, especially for those already struggling to cover rising costs.”
What Beneficiaries Should Do
For now, there’s no action needed from beneficiaries. The COLA is automatic, and benefits will continue even if the SSA’s announcement is delayed. Still, you can stay informed and plan ahead:
- Check the SSA newsroom or BLS CPI release schedule for updates.
- Log in to your My Social Security account to monitor any future notices.
- Keep a close eye on inflation trends to estimate your potential increase.
If the shutdown ends before late October, the SSA may still announce the COLA before the end of the month.
FAQs
Will Social Security checks stop during a government shutdown?
No. Benefits continue without interruption because they’re funded separately from the federal budget.
Could the COLA announcement be delayed?
Yes, the official could be postponed if SSA staff responsible for communications are furloughed.
What is the projected COLA for 2026?
About 2.7%, which would increase the average retired worker’s monthly benefit by roughly $54.
When will the COLA take effect?
In January 2026, with the first adjusted payments arriving in early February.
Will Medicare or SSI be affected by the shutdown?
No. These programs are essential and continue as usual, though some administrative tasks may be delayed.
